The Prediction of Business Cycle Phases: Financial Variables and International Linkages
نویسندگان
چکیده
منابع مشابه
Financial Liberalization and International Business Cycle
The majority of OECD countries has experienced a reduction in macroeconomic volatility during the last two decades. This period is also characterized by a gradual liberalization of the capital accounts of from these countries. The goal of this paper is to study whether capital markets liberalization can lead to lower macroeconomic volatility. We study a business cycle model with multiple countr...
متن کاملSpatial Linkages in International Financial Markets
Spatial dependency has been broadly studied in several research areas, such as environmental criminology, economic geography, environmental sciences, and urban economics. However, it has been essentially overlooked in other subfields of economics and in the field of finance as a whole. A key element at stake is the definition of contiguity. In the context of financial markets, defining a metric...
متن کاملBilateral Linkages and the International Transmission of Business Cycles
Comovement is more than correlation. This paper estimates the contributions of intermediate production linkages, trade patterns, and financial holdings on the directed graph of linkages that describe the international propagation of macroeconomic shocks at the business cycle frequency. The empirical methodology is a novel generalization of the panel vector autoregression (VAR) which nests both ...
متن کاملBusiness Cycle Linkages Among Major Advanced Economies
current policy issues involving interactions across national economies. Given that the global economy is in a synchronized slowdown in economic activity, the first two essays are devoted to an examination of the international business cycle linkages among the seven major advanced economies—hereafter called the Group of Seven (G-7) countries—and between the advanced and developing economies. The...
متن کاملFinancial Integration and International Business Cycle Co-Movement: The Role of Balance Sheets
Abstract This paper investigates the effect of international financial integration on international business cycle co-movement. We first show with a reduced form empirical approach how capital market integration (equity) has a negative effect on business cycle co-movement while credit market integration (debt) has a positive effect. We then construct a model that can replicate these empirical r...
متن کاملذخیره در منابع من
با ذخیره ی این منبع در منابع من، دسترسی به آن را برای استفاده های بعدی آسان تر کنید
ژورنال
عنوان ژورنال: National Institute Economic Review
سال: 2002
ISSN: 0027-9501,1741-3036
DOI: 10.1177/002795010218200110